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.The history of wages, for ex-ample, shows the error of the assumption that the standard of comfort ofthe labouring classes automatically determines the rate of wages, whilstit is itself unaffected by changes in that rate.In particular, economic history teaches the limits of the actual ap-plicability of economic doctrines.It calls attention to the shifting char-acter of economic conditions, and shows how, as these conditions vary,some at least of the principles by which economic phenomena are regu-lated vary also.The relativity of economic doctrines is discussed insome detail in a note at the conclusion of the present chapter; and henceno more than a passing reference to the subject need be made at thisstage.It will suffice to remark that the almost universal recognition ofsuch relativity by recent economists, so far at any rate as concrete eco-nomic doctrines are concerned, may be regarded as one of the moststriking and legitimate triumphs of the historical school.The questionhow far there remain economic principles for which universality maystill be claimed will be considered later on.§4.Economic theories established by history. The question nextarises how far historical material may be of service for the discovery ofeconomic uniformities, and not merely for the confirmation or criticismof theories arrived at in some other way.There are, without doubt, manyproblems which require for their solution a combination of deductivereasoning and historical investigation so to speak on equal terms; andthere are other cases in which our main reliance has to be placed uponhistorical generalizations.The effects of machinery on wages, the occurrence of credit cycles,the extent of the evils resulting from bad currency regulations, the ef-fects of gold discoveries or of a scarcity of gold on trade and industry, 126/John Neville Keynesthe working of a system of progressive taxation, the economic conse-quences of different systems of poor relief, and of State interference ofvarious kinds, may be given as instances where the economist is more orless directly dependent upon historical material.It is true that deductionfrom elementary principles of human nature also finds some place in theargument.Deduction at some stage or other of the reasoning is, indeed,in most cases essential to its cogency, for the fallibility of purely empiri-cal laws must constantly be borne in mind.Still instances of the abovekind serve at once to invalidate the view that economic history neverprovides premisses for the economist or forms the basis of his doctrines.For purposes of illustration the problem of the effects of machineryon wages may be considered in rather fuller detail.This problem reallyinvolves two questions, as is pointed out by Professor Nicholson in hisessay on the Effects Machinery on Wages: first, the immediate or closelyproximate effects of the extended use of machinery the characteris-tics, that is to say, of the state of transition; and secondly, the generalcharacteristics as affecting wage-receivers of a system of industryin which much machinery is used, compared with one in which littlemachinery is used.In dealing with the first of these questions we may to a considerableextent employ deductive reasoning based on the general theory of distri-bution.We have to consider the increased efficiency of production dueto the use of machinery, yielding a larger dividend for distribution; thegreater aid which capital is able to afford to labour, tending to raise thecapitalist s share at the expense of the wage-receiver s;169 the impetusgiven to the accumulation of capital; the change in the kind of labourrequired.skilled labour of a given kind being superseded by unskilledlabour or by skilled labour of another kind.These are the main factorsto be taken into account, and use can argue from them deductively to thekind of effects that will be produced.Of course the actual effects willvary with varying conditions; but still arguing for the most part deduc-tively, we can determine what are the most influential of these condi-tions: e.g., the continuity or want of continuity in the changes, and thetime over which a given alteration is spread;170 also, the adaptability ofthe labourers, depending mainly on their general intelligence and techni-cal education.In all the above we may, in the manner indicated in the two preced-ing sections, appeal to the experience of the last hundred years to illus-trate, confirm, or correct our conclusions; still, so far, the use of history The Scope and Method of Political Economy/127is mainly supplementary.We need more definitely to look to the past,when we turn to the second of the questions involved in the given prob-lem, and seek to determine how wage-receivers are affected by the gen-eral characteristics of an age of machinery as compared with one ofhand labour [ Pobierz caÅ‚ość w formacie PDF ]
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.The history of wages, for ex-ample, shows the error of the assumption that the standard of comfort ofthe labouring classes automatically determines the rate of wages, whilstit is itself unaffected by changes in that rate.In particular, economic history teaches the limits of the actual ap-plicability of economic doctrines.It calls attention to the shifting char-acter of economic conditions, and shows how, as these conditions vary,some at least of the principles by which economic phenomena are regu-lated vary also.The relativity of economic doctrines is discussed insome detail in a note at the conclusion of the present chapter; and henceno more than a passing reference to the subject need be made at thisstage.It will suffice to remark that the almost universal recognition ofsuch relativity by recent economists, so far at any rate as concrete eco-nomic doctrines are concerned, may be regarded as one of the moststriking and legitimate triumphs of the historical school.The questionhow far there remain economic principles for which universality maystill be claimed will be considered later on.§4.Economic theories established by history. The question nextarises how far historical material may be of service for the discovery ofeconomic uniformities, and not merely for the confirmation or criticismof theories arrived at in some other way.There are, without doubt, manyproblems which require for their solution a combination of deductivereasoning and historical investigation so to speak on equal terms; andthere are other cases in which our main reliance has to be placed uponhistorical generalizations.The effects of machinery on wages, the occurrence of credit cycles,the extent of the evils resulting from bad currency regulations, the ef-fects of gold discoveries or of a scarcity of gold on trade and industry, 126/John Neville Keynesthe working of a system of progressive taxation, the economic conse-quences of different systems of poor relief, and of State interference ofvarious kinds, may be given as instances where the economist is more orless directly dependent upon historical material.It is true that deductionfrom elementary principles of human nature also finds some place in theargument.Deduction at some stage or other of the reasoning is, indeed,in most cases essential to its cogency, for the fallibility of purely empiri-cal laws must constantly be borne in mind.Still instances of the abovekind serve at once to invalidate the view that economic history neverprovides premisses for the economist or forms the basis of his doctrines.For purposes of illustration the problem of the effects of machineryon wages may be considered in rather fuller detail.This problem reallyinvolves two questions, as is pointed out by Professor Nicholson in hisessay on the Effects Machinery on Wages: first, the immediate or closelyproximate effects of the extended use of machinery the characteris-tics, that is to say, of the state of transition; and secondly, the generalcharacteristics as affecting wage-receivers of a system of industryin which much machinery is used, compared with one in which littlemachinery is used.In dealing with the first of these questions we may to a considerableextent employ deductive reasoning based on the general theory of distri-bution.We have to consider the increased efficiency of production dueto the use of machinery, yielding a larger dividend for distribution; thegreater aid which capital is able to afford to labour, tending to raise thecapitalist s share at the expense of the wage-receiver s;169 the impetusgiven to the accumulation of capital; the change in the kind of labourrequired.skilled labour of a given kind being superseded by unskilledlabour or by skilled labour of another kind.These are the main factorsto be taken into account, and use can argue from them deductively to thekind of effects that will be produced.Of course the actual effects willvary with varying conditions; but still arguing for the most part deduc-tively, we can determine what are the most influential of these condi-tions: e.g., the continuity or want of continuity in the changes, and thetime over which a given alteration is spread;170 also, the adaptability ofthe labourers, depending mainly on their general intelligence and techni-cal education.In all the above we may, in the manner indicated in the two preced-ing sections, appeal to the experience of the last hundred years to illus-trate, confirm, or correct our conclusions; still, so far, the use of history The Scope and Method of Political Economy/127is mainly supplementary.We need more definitely to look to the past,when we turn to the second of the questions involved in the given prob-lem, and seek to determine how wage-receivers are affected by the gen-eral characteristics of an age of machinery as compared with one ofhand labour [ Pobierz caÅ‚ość w formacie PDF ]